OK – So you took our real estate classes in Los Angeles or maybe you took our real estate classes online. Now you have your license and it’s time to do your first open house! You’re hoping to make Read more...
OK – So you took our real estate classes in Los Angeles or maybe you took our real estate classes online. Now you have your license and it’s time to do your first open house! You’re hoping to make some great connections with potential clients and you want visitors to roam through the home a little longer. What do you do? Bribe them with ice cream? Booze? Both?
If you decide to serve alcohol at your open house and you don’t have a liquor license (no agent is going to have one) it’s important to ensure that the open house is not open to the public. If you are serving alcohol and your open house is open to the public you need to have a liquor license to do it.
Want to serve liquor at an open house? There are other rules too:
There can’t be any sale of alcohol
It’s important to make sure that there’s no actual sale of alcohol happening at the open house. Agents typically don’t charge for liquor at an open house so this isn’t something that most real estate agents have to worry about.
The premises cannot be maintained for the purpose of keeping, serving, consuming, or disposing alcoholic beverages.
If you’re doing an open house at a residential property, it’s pretty unlikely that the premises are going to be maintained for the purpose of serving liquor. It’s a residential property, it’s not zoned commercial, it’s not zoned retail restaurant or bar. So this second rule isn’t going to be a problem for most real estate agents.
The event should not be open to the “general public” at the time alcoholic beverages are served.
In the hospitality world, this is known as a “private party exception”. For the private party exception to be invoked, the person doing the open house has to have a list of guests prior to the event. Only people on the list are permitted to be admitted to the event and it would become a “private party”.
This means that if somebody does show up at your open house and they’re not on the list, you have to turn them away. If you’re serving alcohol and you let them in the event could be interpreted as being “open to the public” which could trigger a licensing requirement. The list of attendees is important to maintain and should be respected.
Finally, it’s hard to overstate the amount of liability that the agent can incur in the event the agent allows alcohol to be served to someone that is underage. Agents can also be liable in the event that they continue to serve alcohol to someone who is obviously intoxicated or is “habitual drunkard”.
So be smart about it. Make sure that if you are serving wine you need to have proper protocol that’s being followed to make sure we limit our liability at these open house events.
As always, if you are interested in taking real estate classes in Los Angeles or in Orange County please visit www.adhischools.com. Feel free to call the office at 888 768 5285.Love,
Kartik
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Hi all:
I wanted to give my readers a bit of a public service announcement with this article. Recently, 74 people were indicted on wire fraud related to real estate purchases.
How does this scheme Read more...
Hi all:
I wanted to give my readers a bit of a public service announcement with this article. Recently, 74 people were indicted on wire fraud related to real estate purchases.
How does this scheme work? Hackers are locating people who are in the process of buying a home or other real estate. The hacker then spoofs an email from the escrow company that you are using for your particular home or building purchase. Wiring instructions are sent saying something like, “Your down payment’s should be sent to our escrow company. Here are our routing number and account numbers.”
As it turns out, that’s not the routing number nor is it the account number of the escrow company, and hardworking Americans send their money to these scammers.
If you’re in the process of buying a piece of real estate my hope is that your escrow company is shares this information with you. It is absolutely mission critical that you call the escrow company, speak with the escrow officer, and verbally verify the account number and routing number. Don’t just rely on things that have come via email. You could find yourself the victim of wire fraud. I’m so happy that almost 100 people have been indicted and taken off the streets so that they can’t harm future purchasers.
The tip here involves ensuring that you call the escrow company directly. Another pro-tip is not to call the phone number on the wiring form that comes via email as that could also be fake. Call the number that you find for them on Google or on Yelp, and verify that you’re talking to the right person before you wire that money in. Better yet – stop by and talk to someone face to face if possible.
Here is a link to the news article about the 74 people that have allegedly committed this crime.
If I haven’t gotten to know you on Instagram, I would love to. I’m @kartikspics. Also, we have a YouTube channel linked here – make sure you subscribe to the channel!
As always if you are interested in taking real estate classes online or even live real estate classes let us know. If you need state examination prep, we also have you covered!
Love,
Kartik
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Recently, I’ve been getting many questions regarding “off-the-top” fees that real estate companies charge their agents.
If you are working at a real estate company, you are probably subject to Read more...
Recently, I’ve been getting many questions regarding “off-the-top” fees that real estate companies charge their agents.
If you are working at a real estate company, you are probably subject to some kind of commission split between you and the company. Imagine it's 60/40, 70/30, 80/20 - whatever it is you'll have some split with your broker. This means that you will get a portion of the real estate commission and your brokerage gets a portion of the commission.
Generally if you go work for a massive franchise like Century 21, Coldwell Banker, RE/MAX or Keller Williams, they are also going to have an “off-the-top” fee. Remember, this is in addition to your commission split.
Typically, this is anywhere between three and eight percent of the total commission. This represents a royalty to the franchisor. So Keller Williams corporate in Austin, or Coldwell Banker corporate in New Jersey gets a portion of your commission before you do.
.
As an example, let’s say you earn a $10,000 commission and your company charges a 6% off-the-top fee. Before your commission split is calculated the company will take $600 out of the $10,000 and send that to Coldwell Banker in New Jersey.
Now you have $9,400 left. Your commission split will be calculated on that $9,400.
Once you finish taking real estate classes, you are naturally going to interview with various real estate brokers and an important question to ask is “What’s my commission split?”
However, you’ll also want to ask if there are there any other fees that are deducted before the commission split is calculated. Some brokers will charge an errors and omissions insurance fee for professional liability insurance. Some brokers will charge you a document scanning fee, or some other “desk fees” to work there.
As a newer agent these are questions that you need to ask of the broker and be as educated as possible so you are fully aware of what you're getting into.
If you are interested in taking real estate classes in Los Angeles or Orange County, please visit our website.
If we haven’t yet connected on Instagram I would love to get to know you - I’m @kartikspics.
Love,
Kartik
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Many of you taking our real estate classes to obtain your real estate license are probably also interested in real estate investing.
I recently came across a real estate deal that I want to tell you Read more...
Many of you taking our real estate classes to obtain your real estate license are probably also interested in real estate investing.
I recently came across a real estate deal that I want to tell you about. Some things make it a good deal, some aspects of it make it less desirable, and I'll let you know about many of these in this article.
There is a local airport with some adjacent land that was deeded to the city on the condition that the property is used for either airport or retail use.
The city owns the land, and a real estate investor went to the town and said, "Hey, I'll lease this land from you." The investor's ground lease totals about $1,000,000 per year to the city and he proposed a very long-term lease. The city agreed.
After securing the ground lease from the city, the investor went to the hardware store Lowe’s and told them, "Hey, you can rent this land from me, and you can build another Lowe’s. I’ll lease the site to you for $2,000,000 per year."
Lowe’s agreed. The investor is now in a “sandwich” position between the city and Lowe's. That is, Lowe's is paying about $2,000,000 a year to the investor, and the investor is then paying roughly $1,000,000 per year to the city.
This ground lease produces about $1,000,000 a year in net operating income to the investor. The financial benefit to Lowe's is that Lowe's gets the site built and can start operating in the location. The advantage to the city is that they collect ground rent, and the benefit to the investor is that they profit from the difference between the two leases.
Now the question becomes, "What are the risks associated with this investment? What are the benefits? What are drawbacks?"
Well, one real risk the investor has is that if Lowe's goes bankrupt or decides to close the store rent may stop. We've seen many retailers, even major ones, close over the last several years. Consider Mervyn's, Circuit City, Borders, and Fresh and Easy. There are a ton of examples of large retailers with their back to the ropes. Giants like Macy’s and Sears and getting squeezed as the internet pounds away at these traditional brick-and-mortar retail models.
In my investment example, the ground lease expires in 2053, so the person that's leasing from the city has contractual obligations for a good number of years. Before making a decision, an investor would have to look at the Lowe's lease abstract. An essential examination of the lease would investigate the length of time Lowe’s remains obligated to pay. Do they have any outs in the contract? For example, do they have the right to terminate the lease before the expiration? Imagine if Lowe's terminated in 2035, the investor might still have another 18 years remaining on their ground lease. This could be horrific for the investor.
As of the time of this writing, the investor is selling their position in the lease at an asking price of $11,400,000 as of the time of this writing. The question is, is this a good investment?
I've pitched this to a couple of my investor clients, and many initially seemed interested. However, after they slept on it they start to think, "I don't own the real estate, so it's just a pure cashflow play - I don't want to pay $10,000,000+ for it”. Number two is when you own the real estate, of course, you benefit from depreciation and a lot of other tax advantages. You don't have that in this instance because you're not buying the fee simple ownership.
I wanted to write this blog and open your eyes to the fact that there's not only one way to invest in real estate. You can invest in cash flow plays. You can invest in appreciation plays. Hopefully, you're getting a little bit of both, but this is a deal that is not an appreciation play in all. It's the exact opposite.
Remember that as time goes on, this deal becomes less and less valuable because Lowe’s lease obligation decreases as time progresses. The cash flow is finite and as time goes on, the time you have to collect the rent from Lowe's decreases.
So, if you're interested in investing in real estate, I'd love to talk to you. I come across a ton of deals each week that I'm calling people on. There are flip opportunities and investment opportunities and syndication. If you want to bounce a deal off me and talk, I'd love to hear from you.
If you want to know how to pass the California real estate exam or are interested in taking real estate classes anywhere in California check out www.adhischools.com. You can also visit our state exam prep site at www.crashcourseonline.com for more information.
Our office can be reached at 888-768-5285.
Don't forget to connect with me on Instagram personally @kartikspics. I'd love to see what you're up to on and offline. I will catch you on the next one.
Love,
Kartik
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I was up in the high desert a few days ago and spoke to a group of students who had recently finished our real estate school and work for Alam Realty. While I was speaking to them something came up that Read more...
I was up in the high desert a few days ago and spoke to a group of students who had recently finished our real estate school and work for Alam Realty. While I was speaking to them something came up that surprised me. Many of our recent graduates had clients that they were working with within just days of getting their licenses issued.
I pulled the broker aside and I said, "Mohammad, how are these guys hitting the ground running so quickly? Most new agents have a 60 to 90 day period where they're still learning the purchase contract. They're still learning how to get customers. They're still kind of getting their feet wet. Your team seems to be doing well very soon after getting licensed. Why is this?”
Mohammad said to me, "Kartik, you don't remember I do a class here on Tuesday nights." Turns out that every Tuesday he does a real estate class on sales skills. He also teaches the purchase contract and provides tips about the industry before they get their license.
This got me thinking about what you could do (no matter where you live) as a current student of ours to hit the ground running. One mistake that I see a lot of people make is they're so focused on preparing for the real estate exam test they think, "I'll learn about the contract and pick a broker later on. Let me focus right now on passing the test.”
While that's semi-true I would highly recommend that you start learning about the business and about the industry early in your journey. Don't wait until you get your real estate license to do that. There's no law against you learning the purchase contract or reading the listing agreement now before you get your license. There's no law against you shadowing a successful real estate agent. There's no law against you attending a sales meeting before you get a license. There's no law against you interviewing with real estate companies.
I would try to get immersed in the culture as early as possible as the state will take four to eight weeks to process your exam application. What that means is even after you pass the three courses and you apply for the exam it can take a long while before you're taking the actual real estate exam.
It’s super important to build momentum through the licensing process. Again, one big mistake that I see a lot of people make is that a lot of students are so focused on the test that they don't think about what's going to happen after they get their license. You don't want to run out of steam early in the game.
Remember you don’t yet have a license so you might not be able to solicit for customers. You're not going to have a Supra lock box or an eKEY now but there's a lot of things that you could be doing now that will make sure that you obtain success quickly.
Love,
Kartik
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I recently received an email that went like this:
"Dear Kartik:
“I'm addicted to social media and I can't get over how successful all these real estate agents on Instagram seem to be. I see every Read more...
I recently received an email that went like this:
"Dear Kartik:
“I'm addicted to social media and I can't get over how successful all these real estate agents on Instagram seem to be. I see every other realtor on 'the Gram' closing what seems like an endless amount of real estate transactions and I can't seem to keep up. I've done eight deals so far this year and I compare myself to other realtors online and it seems like I'm doing so much worse than they are.
How do I break my addiction because I keep comparing myself to other people online?"
This is a very good question, actually. I think that a lot of people these days are addicted to their cell phones and specifically to social media. I mean, the addiction to our phones and technology has gotten so bad that the latest version of the iOS operating system actually has a screen timer showing the user how much time was spent on their phone.
Anyway, there was actually more to this email. The writer had actually listed a few agents that seemed to be doing really well on Instagram and I used a system called Broker Metrics to look up how many deals these agents had done. Turns out that he author of the email had actually done MORE deals than the agents that he was comparing himself to!
Now, I know that there's different ways that you can count how many deals you did. I understand that sometimes transactions can be co-listed or maybe you're on a team and the offer was written in the name of your "team leader" and you didn’t get credit through the MLS. I understand all that. But, it's important to remember that the things people put on Instagram or Facebook or Twitter are the most pleasant parts of their lives. Society picks and chooses what they want to share with the rest of the world. All these posts to is try and control your perception of their reality.
Remember to keep the following in perspective:
1. Much of society is addicted to technology. Particularly their cell phone.
2. A subset of that society is admittedly addicted to social media.
3. Not everything that you see on social media is real.
So, it's important that we stop comparing ourselves to people online because more than half of it is fake. So, go back to work. Focus on what makes you successful. Closing real estate transactions, helping clients, stacking cash and building a career. Forget what everybody else is doing online. You could spend your whole life on the sideline watching what other people are doing, or you can get in the game, play and win.
Love, Kartik
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How to Use Social Media to Get Real Estate Business
Social media is one of the most important ways to get business today. Most people are on their phones interacting in the digital world at least as Read more...
How to Use Social Media to Get Real Estate Business
Social media is one of the most important ways to get business today. Most people are on their phones interacting in the digital world at least as much as they are with the physical world. Nurturing relationships online through outlets like Facebook and Instagram can help build trust and brand recognition between you and a prospective client.
To better understand how people in the real estate business use social media I recently met with a good friend who works at a large mortgage company in Orange County. When I met with her for a recent interview she was working with an escrow company and helped build their business using the power of Instagram and Facebook. She was kind enough to share some insider tips on how she uses social media, specifically Instagram, to gain followers and new prospects.In this interview, I was able to find out three key things:
• What she posts
• When she posts
• How she decides what to post
Danielle Benevides has done a great job building this escrow company using Instagram. Here is the gist of our interview, which you can also watch in full here on my YouTube channel.The main takeaways from our interview are these strategies:
1. Merge your personal and professional accounts into one.
2. "Like" other people's posts and engage with them.
3. Reach out to your followers by sending them messages.
4. Post at times when people will be more engaged with social media, such as before work, during lunch, after work and before bed.
5. Post updates that present you as a productive and successful professional, such as you going to an open house, you meeting with clients, you selling a house and so on. Be personable and relatable through these posts.
6. Find an Instagram account in your field that you admire. What makes it so successful? Ask yourself are there models that you can copy before you start doing your own thing? It’s important to not blatantly rip off others and be authentic as you consider this strategy.
7. When you build a following, you can do more and gain an even bigger following. It’s easier to go from 15,000 followers to 20,000 followers than to go from 0 followers to 5,000. Scale is important.
How Danielle Benavides Uses Instagram to Gain Business
Danielle: "Basically, I'm very intentional with what I post on Instagram. I'm very intentional about who I add. It's all a very methodical process. Something I encourage agents to do is to merge their personal profile with their business one. So far, that's really worked to my benefit. By merging accounts, I'm exposing what I'm doing in my daily routine, such as being out with new clients, visiting an open house or doing anything related to business. I'm posting these things and people recognize it. I'm also liking other people's photos, which establishes an online relationship."
Kartik: "Some people think that the business page and personal page should be separate. You don't think so. Why?"
Danielle: "I think it should be all in one. It's time-consuming to go back and forth and log into different accounts ... I hear from agents that they don't even log into either their personal or business profile. When you're trying to juggle two accounts, you won't have the best results."
Kartik: "What about people who didn't grow up with technology or those who may think that social media isn't relevant to their business?"
Danielle: "I work with some clients who aren't really into social media. I encourage them to at least try it out because it is something that they should put into their business. Social media can be a huge part of their success."
Kartik: "What is a good engagement strategy for those who want to get started?"
Danielle: "What I have found myself doing is that I will purposely go on Instagram and start liking pictures of real estate agents that I follow. I even go into my search bar and find real estate agents I know. I seek them out and message them if I want to, like send a DM about my escrow services. You're not working that hard to send a message online. It cost me more gas and time to visit friends than to touch my phone and start sending messages."
Kartik: "A lot of people struggle about what content to post and when they should post it. What do you do?"
Danielle: "It's important to post at certain times of the day when people are more likely to look at their phones or check social media.
• Before 9 am: Lots people get to work between 7:30 and 9 am and check their social media with a cup of coffee.
• Noon during lunch.
• After 5 pm: Work is over and people have some downtime.
• Between 8 and 9 pm: The day is usually done and there's some wind-down time before bed.
Kartik: "What are your end goals with social media?"
Danielle: "My goal is to continue building my following and use it as a tool to get business. I also want to be a leader in my field. I want people to use me as an example, just like the people I look up to on Instagram. I try to follow their methods and implement them into my strategy."
Learn More About Real Estate and Social Media
Once you build an audience around yourself, you can monetize and build your brand even more. I'm so thankful to hear some expert tips from someone who has used Instagram for her business with real results.
If you’ve considered taking online real estate classes visit our website here. If you want to take real estate classes in Los Angeles or in Orange County we have you covered also! To learn more about using social media for real estate, subscribe to my YouTube channel here.
Love,
Kartik
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5 Things I Love About Home Ownership No matter what you’re selling a basic belief in it is critical. It’s hard to sell something that you yourself don’t see value in. I genuinely love real estate, Read more...
5 Things I Love About Home Ownership No matter what you’re selling a basic belief in it is critical. It’s hard to sell something that you yourself don’t see value in. I genuinely love real estate, and there are countless reasons why. Because of this, I have no problem talking about it with everyone I meet. However, for this blog, I’ll limit myself to just a few reasons.Here are five things I love about homeownership.1. Fixed PaymentsWhen you get a home loan with a fixed interest rate, you lock in your payment for the next 15 to 30 years. Your payment is locked – even if the world around you changes. This means your payment will stay the same even while the cost of living is guaranteed to increase over time. This predictable and stable payment will help you plan financially without the fear of increased living expenses.On the other hand, if you rent, your payments are virtually guaranteed to increase as demand and population increase.When you own your own home, your housing expenses are locked in, which only gives you more margin because you’re not continually paying more to live at the same property.2. Likely AppreciationOver time, the value of your home is likely going to increase. Just how much won’t be the same every year, but on average California real estate goes up 4 to 8 percent annually.In some years, values may rise more than 20 percent, and in bad years values can go down — but everything ultimately averages out to a steady rate of appreciation between 4 and 8 percent.Without any effort you’re going to get richer through appreciation.3. StabilityOwning a home gives you a measure of stability and certainty in your life. You also get more control over basic lifestyle decisions without having to ask a landlord for permission. Do you want to paint your walls? Go ahead! If you want a dog, you don’t need to ask your landlord or pay a pet deposit — after all, it’s your house.Also as I mentioned before, fixed payments provide a static housing expense that won’t go up with inflation. In an uncertain world, this is a good thing.4. Forced SavingsIt doesn’t matter if you’re frugal or not — owning a home forces an increase in net worth over time.Even if the value of the home never goes up, the mortgage balance is going down through the process of amortization. This forces you to build some level of net worth even if your property isn’t appreciating.In California, you’ll gain more equity by an ever-decreasing mortgage balance, which will give you access to funds in the future. If your home appreciates, so you’re getting richer on both ends — with both a decreasing balance and higher home value to give you more equity.
5. Your Home Is an AssetYour home and other real estate form part of your estate, which can be left behind for future generations. The fact that your house is passable to others helps leave behind a legacy and keep wealth within your family.As a renter you are getting value in that you have a place to live temporarily, but the big picture is that you are helping pay off your landlord’s mortgage with ever-increasing monthly payments.I understand that in some markets people have the position that it is cheaper on a monthly basis to pay rent compared to a mortgage and that (in theory) that difference could be reinvested elsewhere but the truth is that so few people actually do that. For most of us, if we have money in our pockets we tend to spend it.Learn How to Buy and Sell Homes in CaliforniaDo you want to take real estate classes and get into the exciting world of buying and selling homes? Are you ready to share the benefits of home ownership with others? Then find out more about real estate classes in Los Angeles or even online real estate school today!
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Chinese Investment in U.S. Real Estate Down
Some of the most significant players in the U.S. real estate market are Chinese investment groups. In fact, if you check out our Foreign Investment Study, Read more...
Chinese Investment in U.S. Real Estate Down
Some of the most significant players in the U.S. real estate market are Chinese investment groups. In fact, if you check out our Foreign Investment Study, you’ll find that 1 in 14 residential properties that sold for over a million dollars was sold to either someone from Hong Kong, mainland China or Taiwan. Chinese investments in U.S. real estate have long brought health and vitality to the U.S. real estate market.
That said, Mark Heschmeyer from CoStar reports in his article Already Down, Chinese Investment in U.S. Real Estate Evaporates in First Quarter that if you compare the first quarter of 2017 with the first quarter of 2018, Chinese investment in U.S. real estate has gone down a staggering 75 percent.
This is a significant piece of news for real estate investors and agents for a lot of reasons — one of them being that Chinese investors have long been stimulating the U.S. economy. When 85 to 90 percent of foreign investment in U.S. real estate slows down, so can development and job creation.
Mixed Signals and an Update
Just a disclaimer: Nobody knows for sure if this trend is likely to continue or if in a few quarters things will return to the way they were. In fact, recently Costar reported that the American arm of Wanxiang Group Cos. acquired the Prudential Plaza Office Complex in Chicago for a cool $680 million, exceeding all the investments made in the entire first quarter of this year. As you can see, this situation is still very much up in the air.
What’s Causing This Overall Decrease?
Heschmeyer suspects that one factor that may be causing Chinese investment in real estate to dwindle is that the Chinese government has enacted new legislation that has pushed a lot of Chinese investment toward Europe and other parts of Asia rather than here in the United States.
Selling Current Holdings
Another trend is that these groups are selling their current U.S. holdings – thereby increasing supply. Recently many large deals have involved Chinese investment groups acting as as sellers-disposing of their U.S. real estate assets.Right now these are just large investments. For example, in February 2018, a Chinese investment group sold New York’s 1180 Sixth Avenue for $305 million and 19 East 64th Street for $90 million. These are just a couple of the large U.S. holdings that Chinese investment groups have sold off.
What If You’re Investing on a Smaller Scale?
If you’re an investor in smaller properties, you may be watching this situation closely to see if it will eventually affect you. As an onlooker, here are some questions you may have:
1. Is this an ongoing trend? Are Chinese investors going to be continually pulling money out of the U.S., or is this just a short-term reaction to legislation and things will return to normal in a few quarters?
2. Will this start affecting smaller deals? Is this the catalyst of a trend that will eventually trickle down to smaller properties like a $500,000 home or a $2 million building? Will we lose out on these smaller investments that help our economy and development?
In reality, nobody has definitive answers to these questions at this time. The only thing that we can be sure of is that Chinese investment in U.S. real estate has dropped precipitously, but we’re not sure if it will stay this way.
Tell Me What You Think
Do you think that this trend will trickle down to smaller assets? Do you think this drop is only temporary and that it won’t affect smaller holdings? Is this a good thing or a bad thing? How do you think it will affect the overall economy?
Current Events and Real Estate
Great agents stay on top of what’s going not only locally but also internationally. This awareness helps them tailor their sales and marketing strategy. Starting your real estate education off on the right foot can make all the difference in the world.
Learn how great real estate agents operate in the landscape of constantly changing legislation, buyer behavior and marketing trends at ADHI Schools.
Love,
Kartik
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Are We in a Real Estate Bubble?
A topic of debate in our industry these days is whether or not we are in a real estate bubble. With supply still relatively low, housing starts that don’t keep pace Read more...
Are We in a Real Estate Bubble?
A topic of debate in our industry these days is whether or not we are in a real estate bubble. With supply still relatively low, housing starts that don’t keep pace with demand and prices inflated, my impression is yes.
What do you think?
First, I want to follow up on a video I recorded earlier this year. I reflected on a tour I did of some new construction where Lennar homes had built homes within homes – sort of like an in-law suite. I then discussed what I suspected to be a real estate bubble brewing, even back then.
Back to the Mini Homes
These mini houses were built because Lennar might have suspected that housing prices in California had become so unaffordable that buyers would actually need demised space inside their homes so buyers could have their parents, children or tenants rent out the smaller space to offset the mortgage payment. The builder might also have predicted that joint families are becoming more likely for a greater number of buyers.
I spoke of an affordable housing crisis that had to come to a head somehow. Read on for some California market statistics that have me concerned:
The Numbers Say It All
In San Francisco County, the median home price as of Feb 2018 was $1.73 million. There was a strong increase in appreciation in San Francisco county because in January 2018, the median home price was just $1.33 million.
I’m located in Southern California, so naturally, I was interested in local statistics too. As of March 2018, the median home price was $805,000, but in January 2018 the median price was $780,000.
Frankly, I’m a big believer that we are in a bubble. It’s no secret that many in the real estate business don’t want to admit that the economic environment for housing might be in bubble territory. But I’ve been saying that we’ve been in a bubble for the past year.
Why Are Prices Increasing?
Prices are always some interplay of supply and demand. Supply could be defined as the number of houses on the market at any given time and demand refers to the number of qualified buyers.
We have had constraint in supply for the last few years relative to demand. The number of houses on the market in most areas just isn’t enough to satisfy the demand. This has caused prices to increase and a reduction in marketing times. According to the California Association of Realtors the average time to sell a home in California has recently been as low as 18 days!
Low supply coupled with relatively high demand because of low interest rates and other factors have resulted in an extreme amount of appreciation. I believe that this isn’t sustainable and the market must balance out eventually.
Why the Correction Might Not Be as Extreme as the Previous Recession
Despite the fact that I am a believer in the law of entropy I’m fairly confident that the next real estate market correction is unlikely to be as pronounced as the 2008 crash. This is not to say that another correction might not be worse, but I predict that the upcoming one should be a softer landing. It’s no secret that underwriting standards are pretty conservative these days. People generally have to qualify for financing and submit a bunch of documents to prove their financial ability to repay. There aren’t as the same number of stated income and stated asset loans out there that precipitated the 2008/2009 crash.
What will happen and when? We can’t be sure. Maybe it will be an international geopolitical event, maybe a domestic event or something else significant that will cause the market correction. Maybe interest rates edging up will cause the market to shift.
I just know that these prices aren’t sustainable.
A Brief Update: July 2018
This blog was based on statistics I found in earlier in 2018. Current stats from the California Association of Realtors state that the median price for homes in San Francisco have decreased to $1,620,000 as of the time of this writing. However, this is still a 7.9 percent increase of what the median was in May 2017.
In Orange County, the median home price has risen to $838,000, which is a 5.4 percent increase from its value in May 2017.
In short, the numbers still support my theory that we’re in a bubble.
What Do You Think?
Leave a comment on my YouTube video on this topic here. I would love to know what you think. Do you think I’m right? Am I wrong? Do you think these prices are just the new normal?
If you are interested in real estate classes in Los Angeles or even an online real estate school, check out our website here.
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